PV InfoLink

While it has seen little fallout for its operating PV assets, the Norwegian solar developer says the coronavirus pandemic has started to affect construction, commissioning and testing of some of its new solar plants.

Manufacturing operations in China are beginning to return to normal, with Taiwan-based research firm PV InfoLink reporting 80% capacity utilization across the supply chain in March. But the broader impact that Covid-19 will have on global demand for PV remains to be seen, and will depend on the extent to which the outbreak can be contained, says PV InfoLink chief analyst Corrine Lin.

Three more PV manufacturers are jostling to announce plans to invest in an expansion of production capacities as the industry appears to make light of coronavirus fears.

Since 2017, 156.75 mm M2 wafers have been the standard. However, improvements in cell efficiency appear to have hit a bottleneck, making wafer size a hot topic among manufacturers once again. In the second half of 2018, 158.75 mm G1 mono wafers were introduced to the market. Corrine Lin of PVInfoLink argues that while G1 will likely become the mainstream format over the next two years, 166 mm M6 wafers and 210 mm M12 wafers are presenting new options for manufacturers.

By this time next year we may be able to wave goodbye to that old chestnut about renewables endangering security of supply. Elsewhere, the price of lithium – and the products it goes into – could go either way after tanking this year.

Back in June, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) granted Section 201 tariff exemptions to bifacial cells and modules, but reversed the decision on Oct. 28. Two weeks after the reversal, the U.S. Court of International Trade issued a temporary order against the withdrawal of the bifacial exemption. An investigation is now underway, with the first hearing taking place on Dec. 5.

Battery innovations started to come thick and fast this quarter as the hunt for alternatives to lithium-ion intensified and the latest slew of solar tenders indicated the relentless pressure on solar power generation costs was showing no sign of abating.

After China’s National Day holiday, demand started picking up at a slow pace, but the anticipated installation rush did not occur as expected, due to land and financing issues, as well as the return of winter. These factors will also delay the timing of more than 6 GW of capacity to the first half of next year. PV InfoLink has thus downwardly revised its estimates for installed capacity in the fourth quarter to 11.3 GW in China and 30 GW globally, bringing this year’s global demand forecast to below 120 GW.

PV InfoLink analyzed the key markets of China’s big module manufacturers, as well as product trends, based on export statistics. According to trade figures, the nation’s module exports totaled 34.2 GW in the first half of 2019, up by more than 90% from the corresponding period of 2018. In a nutshell, overseas demand has been strong in 2019.

German polysilicon producer Wacker Chemie AG has reduced its earnings expectations for 2019, citing low prices for polysilicon. The company blamed the polysilicon price slump on oversupply from competitors in China, which muted an expected price increase in the second half of 2019.