Horizon sun

Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has outlined a proposal for the country’s energy outlook as of fiscal year (FY) 2030 that promises to inject an even greater share of renewables into the mix.
According to METI’s proposal, renewable energy, nuclear power generation and thermal power generation are expected to account for 22 to 24% (with solar PV at 7% of that figure), 20 to 22% and 56% of Japan’s energy landscape respectively.
Cumulative installed solar PV capacity as of FY 2030 is expected to reach 9 GW for residential applications (generating 9.5 billion kWh of solar electricity), and 55 GW for all non-residential applications (which will amount to around 65.4 billion kWh of clean solar electricity overall). In total, Japan’s solar PV footprint by 2030 should be at around 64 GW (74.9 billion kWh), which is higher than the 53 GW target laid out in the Third Basic Energy Plan that was published in 2010. For the future of Japan’s solar PV power generation, it will be vitally important for the country to disseminate the industry while also reducing costs. If the cost of PV power generation is reduced sufficiently then there are particular advantages, such as a possible expansion of grid connection capacity, the further development of energy storage technologies and an anticipated maturation of demand control technology such as demand response.
In addition, energy demand to which PV can indirectly contribute already exists in large – and growing – volumes, such as hydrogen conversion for non-electricity use and applications for electric vehicles (EVs). The level of installed PV capacity will be further increased exponentially as the years tick by.
Once the new energy mix is finalized, target figures will become clear and METI will be able to shift its focus towards formulating mid to long-termpolicy proposals, which will cover the full-fledged dissemination of renewable energy. Discussions at the New and Renewable Energy Subcommittee will remain the focus of some rather intense attention from companies and associations operating within the renewable energy industry.

Subcommittee’s proposal

On April 28, METI held a meeting titled the “Subcommittee on Long-term Energy Supply-Demand Outlook” under the Strategic Policy Committee of the Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy. The subcommittee then presented a proposal for Japan’s energy mix as of FY 2030, which was labeled a proposal by the national Japanese government.
The subcommittee discussed the government’s proposal, which was then approved at the discretion of the chairperson. As shown in Figure 1 above, the energy mix is based on the assumption that Japan’s total power generation volume in FY 2030 will stand at 1,065 TWh. Under this assumption, the following targets were presented: renewable energy: 22 to 24%; nuclear power: 20 to 22%; coal: around 26%; LNG: around 27%; and oil: facing a sizable reduction to just 3%. After a term of public hearing the proposal will be officially adopted and a revision will be planned for three years hence. As a basic principle towards formulating the proposal for the ideal energy mix in FY 2030, increases in electricity cost, reductions of greenhouse gas emissions, improvements to energy self-efficiency, and an increase in the ratio as a base load power source (stable supply of electricity) were all placed under consideration. By setting the target ratio of nuclear power – which has a power generation cost evaluated as less expensive at 20 to 22% – renewable energy will be introduced to a maximum level of penetration, and dissemination costs will be absorbed. With these two energy sources, the national government plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions drastically, and to improve energy self-
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PV’s share of the pie

A breakdown of renewable energy in FY 2030 is shown in Table 1, below, with solar PV accounting for around 7%, wind power making up some 1.7%, geothermal power generation at 1 – 1.1%, and hydro and biomass power generation accounting for some 8.8 – 9.2%, and 3.7 – 4.6% respectively.
As already outlined for solar PV power, residential and non-residential power generation volume is estimated to stand at 9 GW and 55 GW respectively by that date, delivering a combined total solar output of 64 GW. These are only the estimated figures at the moment, but if the economic efficiency and supply capabilities of solar PV power continue to improve at the current rate, these figures may be increased by the time the next review of the energy mix is due. Solar PV could then, in this case, come to account for the share of the other energy sources currently in the mix, i.e., by accounting for more than the 7% portion of the 22 to 24% projected renewables share of the energy mix in 2030. However, if the economic efficiency of PV power generation does not improve as expected, and its stability remains stagnant, then it is possible that some of PV’s share in the energy mix could be taken by other energy sources. At any rate, the current evaluation of PV power generation as an energy source is the highest of all the renewable energy sources, except for hydro power generation.
Japan’s various PV-related associations and industry bodies generally hold the opinion that the outlook for PV power generation – that 64 GW by 2030 figure, or 7% of the total generation mix – is too low, and has been conservatively estimated. Japanese trade association, the

Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association (JPEA), is actually targeting an 11% share of the energy mix and 100 GW of cumulative solar PV capacity by that date.
The JPEA has been keen to emphasize that solar PV power is immune from global energy crises and (generally) the whims of politics, and can thus enhance Japan’s energy security.
The association has also emphasized that it is more important to reduce thermal power generation than have again the discussion relating to renewable energy’s potential against nuclear power energy. The JPEA stated that it is possible to increase the share of renewable energy with advanced and effective technology that can handle balancing demand and supply, such as a smart energy management system (EMS), a wider cross-regional transmission grid, further advancement of technology utilizing dispatchable electricity sources such as hydropower, demand response utilizing dynamic pricing, and the further utilization and adoption of energy storage systems.
As of the end of 2014, Japan’s cumulative installed solar PV capacity reached 23.3 GW and it is expected to surpass 30 GW by the end of this year, placing the country behind China and Germany. As of the end of March 2015, cumulative approved capacity of PV projects reached approximately 82 GW (the capacity of canceled projects are also taken into consideration in this sum) while commissioned PV capacity reached 18.2 GW. It is widely recognized that not all of the approved projects will be able to be completed due to ongoing grid constraints. Furthermore, the approved capacity also includes a number of paper projects. As highlighted in Figure 2 (p. 26), according to a market development outlook produced by RTS Corporation, it is expected that cumulative PV installed capacity will reach 64 GW in around 2020 to 2021.
Coupled with the development of the energy mix, the national government has also made a proposal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26% by FY 2030 from FY 2013 levels.
This national target was released to the global community at the G7 summit in early June 2015, in Germany. With the target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions set as a national target, it is likely to become even easier for governmental ministries and agencies to undertake various policy measures designed to increase the share of renewables in Japan’s future energy mix.