Finance

While most photovoltaic manufacturers continue to record losses and some market outlooks remain bleak, new Deutsche Bank analysis has predicted that the solar market is set to grow by 22 percent to 33.4 GW in 2013.

With news of the global polysilicon market full of doom and gloom for the past couple of years, the turn of 2013 has seen stock market investors starting to take a shine to Chinese solar firms.

Market research consultant IHS iSuppli has offered a characteristically brutal prediction of the consolidation it expects in the global upstream solar market this year.

During 2012, many PV manufacturers endured a long, uphill battle, staggering under steep price cuts, excess inventory, shrinking margins and political headwinds; and all the while, jostling for position with other technologies. However, those that have demonstrated the stamina to survive, and that can hold their ground in 2013, have a chance at remaining in top demand for years to come.

GTM Research’s Andrew Krulewitz details the factors that contributed to price declines in each U.S. photovoltaic market segments in Q4 2012.

Only the lowest cost and most commercially viable PV technologies will end up surviving through the brutal PV shakeout phase of 2012, writes Finlay Colville, vice president of NPD Solarbuzz.

Indications are that renewable energy investments will fall in 2012 for the first time in 8 years. However, the news is not all bad, says Ernst & Young, with continuing capacity additions and “booming” emerging market activity. In particular, the South African and MENA regions are displaying strong growth.

Falling prices and consolidation will remain in 2013, predicts IHS. Despite this, photovoltaic installations are expected to grow, the demand-supply balance is likely to be restored and China is set to become the biggest global solar market. Overall, the research company has laid out 10 predictions for the coming year.

2012 has been a rough and tumble year for the solar industry in general, having been consumed by anti-dumping and protectionist measures as countries across the world tried to rescue their own manufacturers in the face of massive oversupply and ever-falling prices. However, the year could have been far worse.

Recent Q3 results from Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL) at first glance added to discontent about the state of the industry. However, there is a lot more to see in that quarter. Moreover, a second glance shows there is reason to be positive and hopeful, on more than just one level.