Solar and wind catch nuclear
In 2024, global new solar generation capacity was deployed 100 times faster than net new nuclear capacity according to recent data from the World Nuclear Association, the International Energy Agency and Ember. New wind was deployed 25 times faster than nuclear. The fastest energy change in history continues.
Net new nuclear capacity averaged 2 GW per year over the past decade including 5.5 GW in 2024, with old powerplants retiring almost as fast as new powerplants open. In 2024, about 700 GW of new solar and wind was deployed.
Solar electricity generation is growing tenfold each decade, whereas nuclear generation has been static since 2000. Both solar and wind electricity generation (Terawatt-hours) will catch nuclear generation this year. The market is speaking clearly: solar and wind are cheaper than nuclear electricity.
The stagnation of global nuclear powerplant deployment since 2000 means that supply chains, finance and skilled people are not available to fuel a rapid surge in nuclear capacity. Nuclear power station construction is a cottage industry compared with solar.
Nuclear power plant size is typically in the range of 1 GW. The average construction time to build a nuclear reactor is 6 to 8 years (excluding the time required for planning and permissions). Furthermore, nuclear power plant construction has a negative learning rate; that is, instead of getting better and cheaper at building plants, costs have increased over time.
The notion that there will be a resurgence of the nuclear industry has similar credibility to the notion that film cameras will be resurrected to match the popularity of digital cameras.
Fossil fuels
Electricity generation from coal and gas has been stagnant since 2021 (Ember). The peak may have occurred in 2023. At current growth rates, there will be more global solar and wind generation in 2032 than the combined total of coal and gas.
More than half of the 2024 global total of new solar and wind was deployed in China. Should the new US administration succeed in curtailing deployment of solar and wind then a large gulf will open between China and the US. China is embracing clean and cheap renewables while the US may cling to fossil fuels – with possibly large economic consequences in the 2030s.
Solar and wind won the energy race
Electrification of transport, heat and industry will double or triple electricity demand in developed countries. In developing countries, rising affluence and “electrification of everything” could cause electricity production to grow fivefold by mid-century.
New solar and wind capacity is being deployed about five times faster than everything else combined (hydro, coal, gas, nuclear and others). Almost all growth in electricity demand is being met by solar and wind.
Energy storage to support solar and wind is a solved problem by way of batteries and pumped hydro.
As ever more solar and wind energy is deployed, the existing coal and gas power stations find themselves being undercut for price on every sunny and windy day. In an open electricity market (such as Australia) they cycle their output down during most days to avoid negative prices, causing their revenue to fall. This in turn forces coal and gas plants out of the market sooner than many analysts expect, creating space for yet more solar and wind. Australia is tracking towards 75% of its electricity from solar and wind in 2030.
If some hypothetical new cheap nuclear or carbon-capture-and-storage technology were developed tomorrow, then unprecedented (magical) growth rates would be required to catch solar and wind before 2050, by which time solar and wind would have already done the job of decarbonizing the world.
Solar and wind lock in cheap clean energy forever. They are by far the best option to mitigate global warming.
Authors: Prof. Ricardo Rüther (UFSC), Prof. Andrew Blakers (ANU)
ISES, the International Solar Energy Society is a UN-accredited membership NGO founded in 1954 working towards a world with 100% renewable energy for all, used efficiently and wisely.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those held by pv magazine.
This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused. If you want to cooperate with us and would like to reuse some of our content, please contact: editors@pv-magazine.com.
By submitting this form you agree to pv magazine using your data for the purposes of publishing your comment.
Your personal data will only be disclosed or otherwise transmitted to third parties for the purposes of spam filtering or if this is necessary for technical maintenance of the website. Any other transfer to third parties will not take place unless this is justified on the basis of applicable data protection regulations or if pv magazine is legally obliged to do so.
You may revoke this consent at any time with effect for the future, in which case your personal data will be deleted immediately. Otherwise, your data will be deleted if pv magazine has processed your request or the purpose of data storage is fulfilled.
Further information on data privacy can be found in our Data Protection Policy.