A research group led by ETH Zurich has modeled the co-adoption dynamics of PV and heat pumps (HPs) in Swiss residential buildings. It used a case study for Switzerland's Ticino Canton, which includes cities such as Lugano and Bellinzona, with the simulation running until 2050 under different regulatory scenarios.
“This study presents a system dynamics (SD) model that evaluates the co-adoption process of PV and heating solutions (HS) in the Swiss residential sector. The model considers the interdependence of these decisions since the evaluation of installing a PV incorporates the consideration of HS, and vice versa,” the academics said. “SD is chosen because it is known as a modeling approach for strategy development and better decision making in complex systems.”
SD breaks down a system into different variables, and the relationships between these variables are mapped out via a causal loop diagram (CLD). Overall, the researchers used three pillars in the model—namely electricity price, ho adoption, and PV adoption—that all affect each other. It includes reinforcement loops (R) that amplify changes, and balancing loops (B) that seek system stability.
Loops R1 and R2 show reinforcing mechanisms driven by peer effects. “Balancing loops B1 and B2 account for the fixed total number of buildings capable of adopting PV or HP. Reinforcing loops R3 and R4 constitute two facets of the same phenomenon, depicting how the proliferation of electricity-based technologies influences electricity prices,” the team explained.
R5 and B3 delineate another consequence of PV and HP adoption on the grid, with the integration of these technologies increasing electricity demand volatility and leading to the need for grid reinforcement by the grid operator. “The costs of grid upgrading cause higher electricity prices for end consumers, amplifying PV adoption (R5) and counterbalancing HP adoption (B3). Finally, reinforcing loop R6 represents the techno-economic synergy between PV and HP. The installation of an HP in a building enhances the economic appeal of installing a PV system, compared to buildings heated by non-electricity-driven technologies,” the academics added.
The simulation was fed with three official databases: one on electricity production plants, the second on the suitability of roofs for solar power, and the last was a register of buildings and dwellings. Historical data from Ticino Canton were used to calibrate 49 parameters of the model further. Overall, six regulatory scenarios were simulated.
The “base scenario” encompasses the prevailing incentives and regulatory framework, incorporating the newly introduced RUEn regulation, which came into force this year. These provisions regulate the installation of new heating systems, limiting the share of energy provided by carbon-emitting technologies to 80% for new buildings and to 90% in case of heating substitution in an existing building.
Another tested scenario was “no RUEn,” a hypothetical case in which none of the above actions are taken. In addition, the team tested a scenario in which there is even a higher incentive for PV installation, another case in which the incentive for HP is higher than RUEn, a case in which regulation enforces more PV installation, and, lastly, a scenario in which more HP installation is enforced.
Image: ETH Zurich, Energy Strategy Reviews, CC BY 4.0
“While the adoption of HP in buildings would have seen an increase even in the absence of the RUEn regulation, the Base scenario projects a significantly higher deployment of HP: the share of buildings with an HP in 2050 shifts from 54% in the no RUEn scenario to 68% in the Base scenario,” the scientists stated. “The total PV installed capacity is expected to grow significantly in all the considered scenarios. As expected, the two scenarios with higher results are the High PV Incentives and the PV Regulatory, where the PV installed capacity reaches 500 MWp.”
In concluding their paper, the team said that “the results demonstrate that slight adjustments in the current policy and regulatory framework could allow to safely reach PV deployment targets, but strong modifications are necessary to completely decarbonize the residential sector.”
The results were presented in “Modeling the co-adoption dynamics of PV and heat pumps in Swiss residential buildings: Implications for policy and sustainability goals,” published in Energy Strategy Reviews. Scientists from Switzerland’s ETH Zurich and the University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland conducted the research.
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