Lower solar production drives up European electricity prices

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting found weekly average electricity prices in excess of €80 ($85.77)/MWh in most major European markets last week. Despite a drop in solar production across the week, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Portugal all set new records for solar generation during a single day in November.

November 6, 2024 Patrick Jowett

Image: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting

Average weekly electricity prices increased in most major European markets last week, according to analysis from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.

When compared to the week prior, AleaSoft noted average price increases in the Belgian, British, Dutch, German, French, Portuguese and Spanish markets. The exceptions were the Italian and Nordic markets, where prices fell week on week by 3.1% and 11%.

The price hikes meant weekly averages exceeded €80/MWh in all analyzed markets bar the Nordic market, where the weekly average stood at €10.86/MWh. The Italian market continued to have the highest average, standing at €117.20/MWh.

The highest hourly prices of the week were seen in the German and Dutch markets, which reached €290.21/MWh and €269.76/MWh on Nov. 4. On the same day, the British market reached its highest price since last December, at €207.25/MWh, while the French market recorded its second highest price of the year, at €160.54/MW.

AleaSoft attributed the rise in electricity prices to a higher average price of CO2 emission allowances and a drop in solar energy production, as well as an increase in electricity demand in some markets.

It is predicting this week will bring a further rise in electricity prices, driven by increased electricity demand and a drop in wind production.

AleaSoft found solar energy production increased in Italy last week but fell in France, Germany, Spain and Portugal. But despite the general downturn, all analyzed markets registered generation records for a day in November.

Italy reached 72 GWh on Nov. 1, the same day France reached 59 GWh, while Spain recorded 98 GWh and Portugal hit 13 GWh on Nov. 2, followed by Germany registering 131 GWh on Nov. 3.

For the week commencing Nov. 4, AleaSoft is forecasting solar energy production will increase across Germany and Spain but decrease in Italy.

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