The Israeli Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure has published a roadmap for net-zero emissions in the energy sector by 2050, heavily relying on solar energy.
The plan foresees three scenarios for achieving the goal, depending on potential technology and policy developments. In the first, solar energy becomes even cheaper and more efficient. In the second, hydrogen technology matures. And in the third, the state allows the operation of nuclear power plants.
“According to our model, by the year 2050, the electricity demand is expected to grow to approximately 19.2 million tons of oil equivalent (toe) per year (about 220 TWh), more than three times the current electricity demand,” the ministry said in a statement. “This increase in electricity demand will accelerate in the coming years due to the electrification of transportation and industry. The total energy demand is also expected to increase 1.5 times by 2050.”
Per the solar plan, which the paper nicknames “the yellow scenario,” by 2050, 64% of Israel’s energy demand would be supplied with PV plants. Under this scenario, the country would have a solar capacity of 108 GW and a four-hour storage capacity of 70 GW. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) would be $ 91.5/ MWh.
“This scenario deploys high rates of solar energy, based on the assumption that the solar and storage fields will undergo technological developments that will lower their price and raise their efficiency,” the ministry explained. “In addition, it is based on the assumption of a technical solution for the integration of PV energy into the grid, and the promotion of further solution, as floating PV (FPV) and agrivoltaics.”
The second scenario, which the ministry calls “the blue solution,” is foreseeing that carbon capture and storage (CCS) and natural-gas-based hydrogen production accounts for 30% of the energy sources, while PV accounts for 45% and imports for 25%. In that case, the electricity production would be based on 56% PV, 38% hydrogen, and 6% imports. That scenario would include 75 GW of solar plants, four hours of 34 GW of storage, and an LCOE of $ 105.6/ MWh. “This scenario will require major infrastructure investment, that will only be possible if hydrogen production becomes more efficient and economically viable.”
The last scenario, “the red scenario,” is based on the introduction of nuclear energy into the Israeli grid. In this case, out of all energy sources, solar would account for 55%, nuclear power for 19%, and imports for 26%. Out of electricity production, solar would account for 57%, hydrogen and nuclear would account for 19% each. It would require 80 GW of solar plants and a storage capacity of 50 GW for four hours. In this case, the LCOE is expected to be $ 96.50/ MWh.
“This scenario is based on the assumption that Israel will have two large nuclear power plants, or a few smaller ones, by 2050,” the ministry said. “This scenario depends on technical developments in modular nuclear reactors, international policy issues, and a deep public discourse about the implementation of such a technology.”
Israel has committed internationally to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 85% by 2050. Still, the ministry emphasizes that a law for net-zero emissions is being pushed in the local parliament. The roadmap will now go through a public hearing process before the government can adopt it.
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