Where are the key markets for JA Solar in 2024?
Zhu: Our focus is worldwide, we have shipped to 165 countries, and we are setting up sales offices in many different regions. We see rapid growth both in emerging markets and in more established places like Europe and China.
We have a European operations office, and we are setting one up in the US as well. After-sales service, technical support, logistics and more are fully established in these regions, so that we can support our clients on the ground. That's a very important topic, and one that we see some companies neglecting in the push to reduce costs.
JA Solar has plans for manufacturing capacity in the in the US, can you talk about this project, how it's moving forward?
Zhu: The first 2 GW project is on target to be ramped up in the third quarter of this year. We see this initial production line as a test bed for our manufacturing operations in the US, and we are looking at opportunities to expand in the future.
We are also examining opportunities and looking for partners in other regions, but our top priority right now is the US. We welcome new cooperations and partnerships in different regions, whether in sales and operations, manufacturing, financing projects – we are working with partners in many regions and we see more on the horizon.
Do you have plans to set up manufacturing in other regions besides the US?
Zhu: Yes, definitely. We have market share targets for different regions covering the next three to five years, and it is important to be prepared for what we may need in terms of localized supply to meet these. We have regular discussions on these issues and the opportunities we may be able to take up in different places to maximize our activity and available supply. But all of this is in the evaluation stage, we don’t have any new manufacturing projects outside of China to announce, save for the US module assembly lines.
Prices for PV modules have reached new lows over the past year – how do you see the market currently?
Zhu: Supply has been growing faster than demand for the past few years. We believe that over the next couple of quarters, some factories producing older, obsolete technology, and some smaller suppliers, will be pushed out of the market. In the long run, demand along the silicon supply chain is sustained enough to handle these cycles, though it is a challenging environment to do business.
For JA Solar, the result of this is that we have slowed down several of our planned capacity expansions. Right now, there is little clarity as to how demand will grow or how much existing manufacturing capacity will exit the market and when. We are slowing down some projects and waiting for the right opportunity to restart investment in manufacturing expansion.
Do you expect prices to fall even lower before we see a change in this situation?
Zhu: As a vertically integrated supplier, our view is that every segment is losing money currently, and this is not sustainable. The industry needs to get back to a level where every segment can achieve positive cash flow.
Image: JA Solar
Where do prices need to be for that to happen?
Zhu: Right now, we see between 12 and 13 cents per watt (USD) – two to three cents above the current level, as a reasonable number that would allow companies along the supply chain to get by. I talk with our customers as well, and they don't think pricing around this level will have a major impact on returns in the project sector or on global demand growth.
Developers and installers downstream need the stability this would bring. They are afraid that if prices go too low, when they eventually do bounce back it will become too difficult to finance projects. The current price situation is not healthy for the whole industry.
When it comes to technology, where is your focus for the moment?
Zhu: We are committed to tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon), and we are now introducing our new generation TOPCon product. We have achieved roughly 26.5% cell efficiency in manufacturing and expect to increase this by another 0.3% this year.
We have a clear roadmap in place targeting further efficiency increases over the next three years – a very good sign that this technology will be able to maintain market share in the medium term. We believe that TOPCon will be the most economically efficient technology for at least this long, and the best option for new capacity investments as well.
Where do you see the ceiling in terms of TOPCon’s potential performance?
Zhu: For the next two years at least, we expect to be able to achieve efficiency increases of 0.5% per year. At this stage we can’t disclose the exact innovations we are working on to achieve this, but we have a clear roadmap in place. Beyond that, we expect further improvements to TOPCon to become more difficult to achieve.
What other cell and module technologies are on JA’s technology road map?
Zhu: Right now, tandem cell technology is our research priority. We expect this technology to have an impact on the market, representing a big step forward for solar technology.
We have cells in the testing and prototype stage, and outdoor trials underway. There are several different combinations under investigation, and a lot will depend on the route that research and development organizations and equipment suppliers take, as well as manufacturers like JA Solar.
We want to send the message that the industry should focus on long-term value and lower the levelized cost of electricity, not only on pricing as has been the case for the past few years. Quality, and lifetime, should be the most important concerns for the whole industry.
The questions and responses in this sponsored interview article were provided by JA Solar.
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