The combined capacity of all unsold modules stored in European warehouses has increased from around 40 GW in mid-July to approximately 80 GW at the end of August, according to new figures provided to pv magazine by Norwegian consulting firm Rystad Energy.
“Europe imported roughly 78 GW in the first eight months of 2023, already surpassing what will be installed this year by a good margin,” said Marius Mordal Bakke, senior supply chain analyst at Rystad Energy. “While import data is not currently available past August of this year, the module surplus as of August would have increased to around 80 GW. Unless we see a considerable slowdown in shipments into Europe this number could surpass 100 GW by the end of this year.”
He explained that the utility-scale and rooftop installation share in Europe should be around or between 45%—55% in 2023. “With already high inventory levels in warehouses, mainly residential and C&I, the majority of new imports would likely be for utility-scale projects,” he added. “With import volumes averaging around 10 GW per month from March to August this year, a good portion of these modules will inevitably end up in European warehouses.”
Mordal Bakke said that while most of the stored modules will be for the rooftop PV segments and not large-scale utility projects, which often procure their PV modules directly from the manufacturer, the industry will see n-type modules taking up a larger share of the residential and C&I market. “The year-on-year decline in average PERC and TOPCon prices are fairly similar, while the low-end prices of PERC in Europe could signify an effort to clear stock of the less in-demand p-type modules,” he said. “One would expect the PERC/TOPCon proportion in European warehouses to approach the shipment share of n/p-type towards the end of the year.”
As prices are dropping with seemingly no relief in sight, PV modules purchased and placed in warehouses are losing value every day. “PERC modules bought and stored by a European distributor for $0.23/W back in March are facing an average spot price of $0.16/W today, which could very likely be $0.15/W next month, meaning that one would be incentivized to accept lower bids to clear stock before it loses too much of its value,” Mordal Bakke emphasized.
pv magazine print edition
The analyst noted that both distributors of manufacturers operating their own warehouses in Europe may be affected by pressure on prices. “Both are affected in the way that they would want to clear stock before the ‘old' modules lose too much value, while also making room for new generation n-type modules that are more in-demand and rapidly becoming more price competitive with PERC,” he said. “The price gap between module products from different manufacturers has increased recently, mainly due to different strategic choices. While some manufacturers choose to lower production output in the face of oversupply and falling prices, other producers value their annual shipment volumes, reducing their offer prices and squeezing the gross profit to expand their market share.”
Rystad Energy estimated the total value of the 40 GW of modules stored in mid-July was around €7 billion ($7.3 billion), according to a report released at that time. “With current price levels, however, these would now be worth around €6 billion,” Mordal Bakke said.
This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused. If you want to cooperate with us and would like to reuse some of our content, please contact: editors@pv-magazine.com.
That’s something out of the madhouse.
An analyst at an institute changes the value of billions every week – wow!
First a hundred, then forty, then eighty and then a hundred – what now?
What are the new data- from China the export data for August (everyone can download here as csv. also for 2022, etc. in the file: https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/china-solar-pv-exports/
Download the file, scroll to the EU and you can see what happened in August and all the months before in China in the direction of the EU.
Well- since last week only changed that the Chinese export data for August outgoing from China to the EU has been added: 7.9 GWp in August after 7.2 GWp in July 2023.
Further thus nearly 5 GWp less than in the point.
How one can make with it from MItte July 40 GWp then 80 GWp as of now- I don’t get it.
Again:
If there were 40 GWp in July, it is now impossible to suddenly make 80 GWp?
For the EU there are still market expectations of 60- 114 GWp for 2023 …
The numbers are to be seen mind you always of the now “normal” run of 12-16 GWp for 2 months.
What’s going on there at Rystad?
Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
I see a problem with the whole thing: modules are always only judged based on their performance. For many homeowners, however, this is not the point that is crucial, but rather the place where the modules should be installed. The size of the solar modules themselves is also crucial. Let me give you an example from my own experience. I need 12 solar modules that are no larger than 1.65 × 0.60 m. When I look for the size, I can’t find any because I haven’t specified the exact size of a possible module. Once I have found a module, the supplier usually either doesn’t have enough modules or adds a discount on the transport that is three to four times the price of the module. I’ve been through this several times this year. It is also difficult to get small, powerful modules at all.