Over the next four years solar tracker makers can expect a boom in the Americas, Polish policymakers will continue to bask in the success of their household solar incentive scheme, and the Japanese PV market will center on business installations.
Those were among the findings of a survey of the prospects for a global solar market that will surpass 1TW of new generation capacity out to 2025, according to analyst IHS Markit.
The London-based market data company has extrapolated the performance of solar last year and recent policy changes to predict what the world market will look like over the next four years.
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The expected dominance of China in most market segments will come as little surprise to industry observers, with the Asia-Pacific region set to account for 51% of installations over the four-year window, led by the solar superpower, which IHS Markit says will corner 36% of new capacity alone.
The region will trail Europe when it comes to residential solar though, according to an infographic released by the data company on Thursday, with Germany the leading nation in a region which it is expected will claim 43% of the global market, versus 30% in Asia-Pacific, 24% in the Americas, and just 3% in Africa and the Middle East.
The US will actually lead a residential market which will offer more resilience than the large scale solar segment which is suffering from rising panel prices and logistics headaches, according to IHS Markit, which said the United States will account for 19% of all new home solar arrays through 2025. Australia will not lag far behind, with 18%, and Germany and Poland can both be expected to add more household systems than China, the data company predicted.
Those residential numbers will help the Americas claim 19% of the total solar market over the next four years, the analyst expects, with Europe amounting to 23%, and Africa and the Middle East 7%. The US will also be the nearest rival to China in whole-market terms, ahead of India, Germany and Brazil.
On the trackers front, IHS Markit has predicted 85% of ground-mounted solar panels added in the Americas through 2025 will be tracker mounted. That compares with just 22% of Asian projects and 43% in Europe. With ground-mounted arrays set to supply 66% of new solar over the next four years, the analyst said, an Asian-Pacific region led by China will claim 56% of the market during that time, with Europe amounting to 29%, the Americas 12% and Africa and the Middle East 4%, with the percentages offered by IHS Markit rounded off. In country terms, the US will be the second biggest ground-mount market through 2025, ahead of India, Germany and Spain.
Utility scale
Spain also figures among the leading nations in the analyst's prediction for utility scale solar projects, a segment in which China and India, sandwiching second-largest market the US, will corner 45% of capacity between them, with Spain and Brazil set to be the fourth and fifth national markets. Asia-Pacific will host 47% of the utility scale solar generation capacity built over the next four years, the analyst said, ahead of the Americas (with a 24% market share), Europe (20%), and Africa and the Middle East (9%).
The latter region will supply 8% of the global rooftop solar market out to 2025 but only 5% of the commercial and industrial segment, according to IHS Markit. Commercial arrays from China will account for almost half the global total during that period, with Germany supplying 10%, ahead of Brazil, Japan, and Australia, as the Asia-Pacific region will claim 63%, Europe 23%, and the Americas 9%, the data company predicted.
The familiar figure of China will also dominate the next four years' rooftop arrays, ahead of Germany, the US, Australia, and Brazil as Asia-Pacific accounts for half the global picture, the Americas 22%, Europe 20%, and Africa and the Middle East 8%.
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