The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) is expecting the nation’s installed PV capacity to have grown almost fivefold from the beginning of this year until the end of the next decade.
A report on the future energy landscape of the Netherlands predicted an additional 5 GW of solar power will have been deployed this year and next, enough to raise Dutch PV capacity to around 9 GW.
For 2023, the agency forecasts the Netherlands will boast 15 GW of solar and by 2030 it is expected to have witnessed another 12 GW, bringing total capacity to approximately 27 GW, of which around 30% will be rooftop arrays.
Scenarios
The agency said even in a worst case scenario, PV development could hit 18 GW by 2030. The most optimistic prediction mooted a potential 36 GW by that date. The report’s authors believe the planned phasing out of net metering for rooftop PV may only have consequences on the type of projects installed after 2023, rather than the volume of PV deployment. Since 2013, the residential solar sector in the Netherlands has grown at an annual double-digit rate, and accounted for around 80% of installed capacity up to 2016.
With solar analyst Peter Segaar reporting in April the country’s SDE+ incentive program for large scale renewables had driven 10.5 GW of generation capacity, the PBL report dismissed concern the current funding level of the program would hamper future deployment.
The report’s authors estimate renewables will drive average electricity market prices of €48-50/MWh by 2030 with the average wholesale price sitting at €57/MWh.
The latest estimate is a significant upgrade on the 6 GW of solar expected to have been installed in the Netherlands next year by the Energy Research Center of the Netherlands, when it made its own forecast in October 2017. At that point, the expectation was for 20 GW of solar by 2035.
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