The global demand for silver increased by 4%, from 5,768 million ounces in 2016 to 5,999 million last year, mainly due to climbing demand from the PV industry. Most manufacturers use solar cell architectures that require the use of a conductive silver paste, making commodity prices of silver a pressing issue in PV manufacturing.
According to the report, prices have been dropping steadily from a peak of $18.23/toz in 2016. This was a significant increase from 2015, when the metal was traded at $16.06/toz. Prices rose again to $17.49/toz in Q1 of 2017 but have since taken a continuous downwards trend. Q4 2017 closed at $16.69/toz and prices fell further to $16.47/toz in March 2018. The short-term price prediction for silver is set at $16.91/toz by the end of 2019, according to the World Bank.
The long-term prediction to 2030 forecasts a significant drop in the commodity’s price, reaching $13.42/toz by then. Until 2021, however, the commodity price will not change by a greater margin, if the report is to be believed. Closing at $16.45/toz in 2021, the more significant decline of silver prices comes only after that, with an indicated prediction of $15.04/toz in 2025.
It is noteworthy that the report makes a distinction between a nominal and a constant U.S. dollar accounting format. The latter was used to present the numbers in this report and uses the dollar’s value in 2010 as a benchmark.
While Mexico remains the global top producer of silver globally, with 5,397 metric tons in 2017, China takes the lead in fabrication with just over 6,000 metric tons. In recent years, China and the U.S. have gone head to head as the biggest consumers of silver, treading lead position year on year by small margins.
Despite continued strong demand from the PV and electronics industries, investors are wary of a potentially looming trade dispute between the U.S. and China further reducing commodity prices. Improved production methods requiring reduced amounts of silver, or new technologies that manage to substitute the metal altogether have had a further downward impact on the commodity’s price. In support of that narrative, the indicative gold-to-silver price ratio rose to 80, from a 30-year average of 67, signifying considerable turbulence in the market.
The World Bank stresses in its report that the projection is subject to the effects of a changing value of the U.S dollar or changes in geopolitics. Therefore, clear predictions for the solar industry are hard to make.
This article was amended on 03/06/20 to reflect the World Bank stated global silver demand was 5,999 million oz in 2017, rather than 599 million as previously stated. Please note pv magazine, at this distance in time, has been unable to confirm the figure used in the report and has calculated the final ‘9’ digit based upon the statement the figure was a rise of around 4% from 2016’s 5,768 million oz.
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The price of silver to decline to $13.5 by 2030?
Yeah, right……….So, who wrote this piece, the world bank? of course.
They don’t want you to invest there so they point your nose somewhere else.
What they are saying, is that silver, the most undervalued asset in the world will be more undervalued in the future. Will robots mine it? Does the world have an inexhaustible supply of it?
Even if solar cells need half the amount that they require today, with huge predicted demand in solar cells, expect silver demand to increase. Also, no where in this article does it say about silver regaining monetary status. Silver and gold are real money, all else are ghost. Do the banks actually think that China and Russia wont back their currencies up with gold and silver? Just allow the US dollar to reign as king with exploding debt each year added to the deficit? total crap these banks say to the sheep.
AMEN, BROTHER 👍
Decline to 13 bucks 😂 if they’re trying to deter us from purchasing silver it’s not going to work. Basically I read what “they” report and do the exact fn opposite bc one thing remains constant; “they’re” liars. When “they” say don’t purchase bitcoin the do the opposite and when “they” say buy bitcoin bc it’ll skyrocket then u sale it and buy gold.
It’s 2020 now, I have waited almost 2 years to give a reply to your prediction and you basically calling the World banks foolish, but I’m here to tell you right now in the future in 2020 the price of silver has dropped dramatically and is just over $15 dollars a Troy ounce.
That is crazy. and consider that the dollar’s purchasing power is continually being debased. As example it requires $30.00 in 2020 dollars to equal just $10.00 in 1980. (verification can be had BLS inflation calculator.) Also we need to consider the recent insane monetary stimulus by Duh Fud! and down to zero interest rates with more coming i believe so “real money” history repeatedly shows will reveal the true value of real money!
Donnie B- Silver and almost all investments took a hit in March. It has been only a month and a half since your post and the spot price is currently just shy of 18/oz. on 5/31/20. I don’t think it will suddenly take off and make me rich my any means but it is only a matter of time before the U.S. cannot sustain it’s debt and will be forced to either print it’s way out, default, or raise taxes while cutting spending. Our politicians won’t cut spending and raise taxes because they want to be reelected, meaning default or print. Do you think the nation will default, especially with so many Americans holding treasury bonds and the fact that if they do no one will ever lend them a dime again? It’s a good idea to have some in case we up the printing even more. But hey, I hope you’re right and it drops to 13 or even lower. It will allow me to add to my collection. But as always, diversify your holdings.
This is exactly what is happening. Dollar is going down, pandemic, electric cars, solar panels, China tensions. Silver is going UP
Nothing goes down, always up, even if it is eventually. Put silver in your portfolio.
I absolutely agree with you, Matt. The banks are liars and they don’t want us to save our money as silver and gold. If we save like that there won’t be many banks in the future. As Robert Kiyosaki said, Silver and gold are god’s money. They are limited in supply and cannot be printed like they print an unlimited amount of paper money.
Today 16 dec 2020 silver 25,35 usd,,,,
this didn’t age well
I agree this forecast is totally BS. Theres nowhere for silver to go but up.
7/ 10/ 2022 price is 19.50 a toz
Well, it COULD muddle about until all the above ground silver is gone, when refining scrap metal and recycling electronics don’t yield enough metal, the price will have to rise to get the stackers to start selling. After a year or two to drag silver out of our hands (I’ll sell some starting at $40 but in dribs and drabs). If it makes it to $60 then I’ll start selling in earnest, unless of course it looks like a currency reboot is around the corner, then not so much.
$60 may be worthless. We need to establish something like a precious metal CPI that leaves FIAT currency out. Hmmm any ideas?
Silver has kept up with inflation for the past 100 years. 2030 will be no different, there is no way it will be $13.42/oz. $21.42-$21.50 would be more realistic.
i would say 100$ an ounce is pretty realistic
If u wanna make some money buy coal it’s will be 50 quid a gram in next few years
Silver is down. Where did everyone go?
Wish I had more money to invest on March 27th when you posted. The stock market and silver were down, and both have recovered. Personally I had told people going into April to buy Exxon stock and it has made significant gains. At this point though, I can’t fully trust the stock market. 25,000 with insane amounts of unemployment and many consumers are not confident in the economy so the high numbers don’t match up with the reality, at least at the end of May.
Absoloute gutter reporting. Silver will go up 1000’s of % because they’re printing unlimited amounts of fake money! Even mommy and daddy investors are starting to see it for what it is…. one big scam.
Hi there.
Thanks for your comment. We take accusations of fake news very seriously at pv magazine. Please tell us here how our reporter on this story has failed to correctly report the findings of the World Bank.
Re: Comment by Max Hall 4/22/20: Max, no one taking issue with your reporter, It’s the world bank itself that appear suspicious. They have a LOT to gain by working the system.
Silver prices have been keep artificially low for decades. Supply and demand plus the actual amount still in the ground as provided by NASA prove this. Silver should be around $100 US dollars/2020 per oz. currently. IMF, World Bank, JP Morgan, Chase, (the federal reserve), the bank of England, the bank of China….. I could go on, have controlled this price for decades because of globalist plans to the contrary. Gold, with little to no industrial value has on the other hand gone insane in price and is used by these same financial institutions to bolster their fiat currencies. They have control.
With demand high and silver mines shutdown due to covid 19 the price remains largely the same and less than the 2008 financial crisis……how strange! Supply and demand seem to defy reality until you realize the control being exerted must be quite high.
As to the PV and electronics manufacturing….gee I’d keep those prices low too if I needed a metal that was dirt cheap, the best conductor and recycling wasn’t necessary. Cellphones, electronics, photovoltaics would be impossible without Silver. That said if your investing, as long as they can control they will. If your protecting your life, ignore the price….they will always need your metal!
Max Hall
You stated that you take accusations of fake news seriously. Then why report on what the world bank says.
More important please explain this sentence in your report that PV takes so seriously?
From Article. Demand up 4% from 5768 to 599
How serious can PV be on anything when 4% up is actually 88% down using the printed article including their own guy, Max Hall standing up and speaking loud.
How about reading the content before posting Max?
–> The global demand for silver increased by 4% from 5,768 million ounces in 2016 to 599 million last year, mainly due to a climbing demand of the PV industry. <–
That is how the article read today June 2, 2020
Hi Harry,
We report in good faith on the World Bank as we have no reason to believe its findings are fabricated. However if, just for the sake of argument, the World Bank were renowned as a purveyor of fake news, the fact we clearly state this article is based on World Bank figures surely absolves us of the charge of peddling fake news.
In this instance, what you have highlighted is clearly a typo which has occurred in either the writing or editing of the article. I have quickly skimmed through the lengthy report in question and could not find the correct figure. However, based on the 4% stated, it would seem likely the second figure should be 5,999 million oz. The article will now be amended and a note to that effect added at the bottom.
In terms of reading through posts before publication, this is routinely what takes place at least twice. Needless to say, we do make mistakes as we are not infallible. We are based in Berlin, not The Vatican.
Specifically with regard to publishing responses to comments, we attempt to do so in as timely a manner as possible and given there can be up to 90 overnight comments to be read and addressed during the morning, it is simply not possible to proof-read each associated article in the same detail as can reasonably have been expected to have taken place during the publishing process.
On one final note, I would caution against making any investments based on this article as it was published in May 2018 and I’m sure you would be able to locate more up-to-date reports, World Bank or otherwise.
Hello everyone, the way I see it i take about as much stock in what the world bank had to predict as the report coming out of the world health organization, or should I say lack of reporting ,with interest rates at zero and the printing presses running at max speed it wont belong before the feds will be outsourcing the printing of the dollar to the Chinese, you keep printing these BS articles and I will keep buying, sooner or later the debt.will come due ,good luck with future reporting, thanks for everyone’s time and I hope we all are safe and healthy in these turbulent time ,CHET
Hi Chet,
We take accusations of fake news very seriously here at pv magazine and would be very grateful if you could outline here why you describe this article, and others by our reporters as “BS”. Please let us know how our reporters have failed to accurately report the findings of the studies our reporting is based upon.
Relax, Max, nobody accused you of reporting “fake news”. Everybody believes that the WB statements that you reported are accurate. People just didn’t believe them to be true, which has already been spectacularly proven. They said price would go down over 10 years, 2 years later price doubled. The WB has a vested interest in people not putting any of their money in silver or gold. They want you to buy junk you don’t need, feeding the economy, while central banks print more green, debasing people’s savings. They can’t print silver and gold, so they don’t want you transferring your $’s into it. Silver demand is up as it’s the best conductor of electricity. People use electronics now more than ever, and demand will still go up more by 2030 (EV’s, solar panels, mobiles, tablets, xbox’s, etc). Increased demand, combined with massive inflation will cause prices to go down? Seems unlikely. The price they mention in 2030 is a lot less than the price of mining it today. There would have to be incredible technological breakthroughs in silver mining tech. It’s possible that they know something that we don’t.
Hi Kristopher,
There are two comments below which I would point you to. Chester Chambers said pv magazine should not print “BS articles” and Dariel Sanchez said the pv magazine report was “dead wrong.” Both comments imply pv magazine misrepresented the findings of the World Bank study covered in the article. Whilst it is straightforward to presume that the commenters in question perhaps don’t understand the role of the media in reporting other people’s findings, it could be that instead, pv magazine is being accused of bias and of misrepresenting the findings of the World Bank report in question. We take such accusations very seriously here but, to date, nobody has offered any evidence of such misreporting.
Hi Max,
Gold and silver bugs are convinced that there’s a vast conspiracy to put down metals, particularly by globalist bankers. They’re not totally wrong either.
Last week I read an interview with the head of a small EU country’s central bank, where he was defending the sale of his country’s gold reserves (when the price was at all time lows in early 2000’s) to buy reserves in $’s and €’s. Gold has gone up over 700% since then, while the $ and € has fallen, but he still insisted gold is worse because “it just sits there doing nothing” (he didn’t elaborate on what the $’s are doing for him).
Central bankers want to be able to devalue your savings with the inflation tax, which they can’t with gold and silver, so they hate it. That’s why silver bugs get angry when globalist bankers put it down, like the WB in your article.
Billionaires are now rushing in to buy gold. Ray Dalio, who runs the biggest hedge fund in the world, has always been bullish on gold. He’s written multiple articles on why gold is a great diversifier. And even famous anti-gold investor Warren Buffett has started buying gold mining stocks.
In any case, the World Bank forecast has already been proven false, and in my opinion this Forbes article is a more accurate portrayal of where gold and silver prices will likely be heading and why: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/07/27/gold-and-silver-are-just-getting-started/#5b13386a4bb0
Thanks Kristopher,
I am ancient enough (and enough of a history student) to know about the gold standard and related fiat currency claims. However, none of this is any of our concern at pv magazine. We are journalists and we cover reports. When someone asserts our report (rather than the report we are covering) is “BS” I simply want to see the evidence of wrongdoing by our reporter.
Hi Max
I read your article and was initially shocked at the WB report of projected Silver Price by 2030 being substantially below today’s price and not the likely substantially higher price that others predict based on pure supply/demand economics. Having read all comments on reaction to your article I can understand how readers would be skeptical of such a report. In reading your response to their comments I can only add, based on other media reporting of “facts”, that your reporting can be taken as supporting this view of the WB as you have not explicitly disagreed or reported other views from other sources or made any objective analysis to the reported predictions.
As many have commented, the predictions based on pure supply costs and growing demands for silver on PV alone, cannot be taken seriously. One then is left to speculate the motives for leading organisations like the WB to make such predictions.
While your reporting of WB report, as you say, is accurate in its statements of WB (although the reported typo and your failure to find the exact growth number in the WB report is concerning from fact perspective) it would help readers if you reported a balanced view of other sources predicting the opposite thesis based on “facts” as some readers have suggested. This would help avoid any unjustified criticism of your reporting of the facts.
Based on my limited research, my own opinion is that metals like gold and silver have historically been used as stores of value and for the WB to predict, in light of unprecedented printing and devaluation of fiat currency, that Silver will be at $13.42 by 2030 is at best unbelievable and at worst contributing to the conspiracy theory of manipulation by WB and other bodies to suppress the price of “God’s” money to support man’s money.
I understand it’s not your job to have an opinion on such motives but as the media you have the responsibility to report a balanced view especially when your magazine has a large readership and potential to form opinions.
Regards Richard
Thanks Richard,
Duly noted. What is the reported typo you mention, please? Also, on the failure to find a particular fact in the report, please accept our apologies but the pv magazine article referred to was written (not by me, incidentally, I merely edited the copy, I assume) in May 2018. It is part of my duties at pv magazine to help manage this comments section to which you have contributed. Whilst it appears I attempted to scan the report for the figure you refer to, I clearly didn’t think it worth spending a substantial amount of time reading through the entire report myself in order to produce the stat in question. I accept your suggestion about considering contradicting points of view for balance but I do feel we have been justified in reporting on a World Bank publication in good faith and in the sure knowledge, as always, that our comments platform would offer the opportunity for dissenting views.
I have no knowledge of the metals commodity industry myself so I cannot offer an opinion on whether the price of silver will rise – I note it appears to have gone up from around $17.03 to $26.91 per oz since May 2018, when the pv magazine report was written. Nor, as you correctly point out, should I share my opinion with readers either. One thing we have noted at pv magazine, however, is that stories about the silver price falling stir up much impassioned opposition among our commenters and will presumably continue to do so.
Anyhow, if you would like to give me details about the reported typo you refer to, I will see if that can be corrected forthwith.
silver and gold are going to go through the roof just wait until the next world war…. its coming!
To Señor Max I would like to inform you that you PV magazine report was DEAD wrong as of today silver is at $27.26 as shown on Kitco. Good day sir
Thanks Dariel,
I presume, though, you mean the prediction by the World Bank which we reported was dead wrong. To my knowledge, pv magazine has not issued any predictions about the silver price – as a media outlet, we report the news.
About 11 years ago I recall reading a prediction that the global supply of silver will expire in 2020. I believe the annual global production today compared with the remaining supply available make this prediction plausible. If demand remains the same but the supply is exhausted, notwithstanding recycling, what will become of the price of silver ? It closed today at $19.74/oz. Keep in mind that the price of anything is only worth what a buyer is willing to pay.
August 2nd 2020 and over $24 an ounce spot. Physical going for $35 an ounce.
Here we go…. up up up. Dot point average buy silver spot and also silver mining companies. Start dot point selling when word starts to come through of a viable vaccine. I predict this Buy-sell will turn between Jan and a June 2021.
Hi guys, I bought 12kg silver back in 2012, its lost about £3000.00 UK Sterling in that time so really not my best investment, at the same time I bought 3kg of gold and lost £10,000 sterling in about a year, I sold the gold back to the dealer at a 10k loss…I think I would probably of got my money back on the gold or close to it this year but that’s 8 years I would of held it with really no profit…
atb
Ian
Yeah right Donnie B Im looking at silver now……I must need glasses that $15/oz looks like $24/oz. Please go ahead and wait another 2 years. Ha !
They probably hadn’t counted on a pandemic driving up the price of silver.
Just looked at silver today 12/ 2021, $27. 🙂
Silver premium is always at 2 dollars over spot price per ounce so buying 5 ounces your paying for the energy to put into a coin or if buying a bar your still paying for the labor, at silver mines or other mines that have silver as an extra commodity they will profit at anything after 20 an ounce. So silver will never go below 20 for silver bullion companies to purchase then make a profit at 25 per ounce so silver will most likely not go below 25 dollars an ounce historically after 2020. True value when calculating at the individual level especially with California and other state mandates to go solar or use all electric will take silver to another level regardless of trade wars. So at 2030 that teen predicted amount is not even enough to keep up with inflation since the min wage will be going up because of the value of the dollar will go down 20%.
8 year high today Crested 30 bucks an ounce. This article is having second thoughts?
Yeah… this aged horribly XD
lesson learned. Never listen or trust the banks or these stupid mainstream media predictions, silver and gold is the only REAL money
90% of the people here in retrospect look like complete fools
Hi Johane,
Thanks for the feedback. I’m not sure whether pv magazine qualifies under your definition of ‘mainstream media’ but, just to state once again, in our case, we have not made any predictions but have instead reported the findings of a third-party institution. That is what our job entails.
The reason silver is the price it is , is because it is shorted and naked shorted to the likes that makes GME look like mickey mouse….
The central bank is floundering, and I predict will no longer exist by 2030. Fiat is barrow, barrow, barrow and collect debt until it is unpayable. Precious metals like silver, hold, plat, etc… will compensate and back a new monetary currency… at least here in the states. When this happens, you can see gold hit 10k and silver 1k…. my guess though would be Au at 50k and Ag at 10k.
Buy as much physical metals as you can, because when precious metals run… it will run like bitcoin. You think GME was just a coincidence… wait until its silver and golds turn.
I am sitting on 10oz Au and 530 oz. Ag
All physical…
It seems we must wait for the central banks, futures trading, and rigged everything to crash and then for the dust to settle and then for some new entity to pick up the pieces before anyone allows silver to have a real value again. Just doesn’t make practical sense that silver is down to $22 from $30 in a matter of months, while PV purchases continue to rise. It’s a rigged economy with rigged elections, while the rich underground cities enjoy free everything, cor-pirate entities pay no taxes
Well it’s February 2023 Silver’s it $20 an ounce