Solar modules are currently being sold in Europe for €0.10 ($0.1085)/W for non-tier-1 products and €0.115/W for tier-1 panels, according to Leen van Bellen, business development manager Europe for Search4Solar, a Europe-based purchasing platform for solar panels, inverters and battery solutions.
“We are currently receiving many requests for fast delivery and there is now considerably less stock in Europe,” he told pv magazine, noting that the module market in Europe is currently benefiting from a pull effect instead of a push effect. “Modules sold from European stocks or coming directly from China are now being sold at the same price levels.”
Van Bellen noted that PERC panels still account for around 75% of current panel demand in Europe, with the remaining percentage mostly represented by TOPCon products.
“Based on the trends observed in 2023, TOPCon is poised for further growth and it appears that TOPCon cell technology will overtake traditional PERC and become the new mainstream technology by 2024,” he said. “Especially when the production and stock of the PERC module decrease and the n-Type wafers become cheaper in the long term, TOPCon will boom.”
He noted that he sometimes hears queries about heterojunction (HJT) or interdigitated back contact (IBC) products.
“This does not alter the fact that we do offer them and customers also buy them, but often not specifically because of the intrinsic qualities of HJT or IBC modules, but because of availability and price,” he said. “So, their market share will increase gradually.”
Van Bellen said he expects a vacuum in European stocks and price increases due to the interplay of supply and demand.
“Manufacturers are extremely cautious after the last quarter of 2023 and some are too cautious and maintain lead times of two to three months,” he stated. “This has a positive effect on those who dare to keep stocks.”
Van Bellen expects module prices may increase by up to 5% per month in the future. “This may vary depending on the brands and the power class,” he added. “And if the customer doesn't want alternatives, the price increase from current levels may be of up to 20%.”
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It’s just a matter of time until we see lower prices in the U.S. Many states are trying to stop the widespread use of solar panels in order to please the lobbyists for the electric power companies, but they will fail because batteries are also coming down in price, and a centralized grid will no longer be necessary.